{ "ok": true, "disclaimer": "Educational analysis and a spreadsheet template — not investment, legal, financial, or tax advice, and not a valuation opinion or an offer of securities. All figures are illustrative outputs of a deterministic model driven by the assumptions shown; change an assumption and every figure changes. Consult qualified professionals before making any financing or investment decision.", "ties": true, "runwayMonthsFromExit": null, "model": { "assumptions": { "companyName": "Cadence Robotics, Inc. (FICTIONAL EXAMPLE)", "currency": "USD", "startYearLabel": 2026, "years": 5, "startingCustomers": 14, "newCustomersY1": 46, "newCustomerGrowth": 0.55, "arpaMonthly": 2400, "arpaGrowth": 0.06, "grossLogoChurnMonthly": 0.012, "grossRevChurnMonthly": 0.01, "expansionMonthly": 0.022, "grossMarginPct": 0.74, "s_and_m_perNewCustomer": 11000, "rndPctRevenue": 0.38, "gaPctRevenue": 0.16, "rndFloorAnnual": 1100000, "gaFloorAnnual": 520000, "dsoDays": 52, "dpoDays": 34, "deferredRevPctARR": 0.3, "capexPctRevenue": 0.04, "depreciationYears": 5, "startingCash": 3200000, "startingEquityRaised": 3800000, "newEquityByYear": [ 0, 14000000, 0, 30000000, 0 ], "taxRatePct": 0 }, "years": [ 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030 ], "revenue": [ { "yearLabel": 2026, "beginningCustomers": 14, "newCustomers": 46, "churnedCustomers": 5.1, "endingCustomers": 54.9, "averageCustomers": 34.45, "arpaMonthly": 2400, "revenue": 992126.29, "beginningARR": 403200, "newARR": 1324800, "expansionARR": 120317.58, "churnedARR": 45809.62, "endingARR": 1802507.96 }, { "yearLabel": 2027, "beginningCustomers": 54.9, "newCustomers": 71, "churnedCustomers": 12.36, "endingCustomers": 113.53, "averageCustomers": 84.22, "arpaMonthly": 2544, "revenue": 2570921.84, "beginningARR": 1802507.96, "newARR": 2167488, "expansionARR": 537880.46, "churnedARR": 204792.17, "endingARR": 4303084.25 }, { "yearLabel": 2028, "beginningCustomers": 113.53, "newCustomers": 110, "churnedCustomers": 23, "endingCustomers": 200.53, "averageCustomers": 157.03, "arpaMonthly": 2696.64, "revenue": 5081563.89, "beginningARR": 4303084.25, "newARR": 3559564.8, "expansionARR": 1284069.19, "churnedARR": 488895.47, "endingARR": 8657822.78 }, { "yearLabel": 2029, "beginningCustomers": 200.53, "newCustomers": 171, "churnedCustomers": 38.99, "endingCustomers": 332.54, "averageCustomers": 266.54, "arpaMonthly": 2858.44, "revenue": 9142587.51, "beginningARR": 8657822.78, "newARR": 5865515.6, "expansionARR": 2583552.37, "churnedARR": 983659.65, "endingARR": 16123231.1 }, { "yearLabel": 2030, "beginningCustomers": 332.54, "newCustomers": 265, "churnedCustomers": 63.37, "endingCustomers": 534.18, "averageCustomers": 433.36, "arpaMonthly": 3029.94, "revenue": 15756624.83, "beginningARR": 16123231.1, "newARR": 9635224.16, "expansionARR": 4811280.27, "churnedARR": 1831842.97, "endingARR": 28737892.56 } ], "income": [ { "yearLabel": 2026, "revenue": 992126.29, "cogs": 257952.84, "grossProfit": 734173.45, "grossMarginPct": 74, "sAndM": 506000, "rnd": 1100000, "ga": 520000, "totalOpex": 2126000, "ebitda": -1391826.55, "depreciation": 7937.01, "ebit": -1399763.56, "tax": 0, "netIncome": -1399763.56 }, { "yearLabel": 2027, "revenue": 2570921.84, "cogs": 668439.68, "grossProfit": 1902482.16, "grossMarginPct": 74, "sAndM": 781000, "rnd": 1100000, "ga": 520000, "totalOpex": 2401000, "ebitda": -498517.84, "depreciation": 28504.38, "ebit": -527022.22, "tax": 0, "netIncome": -527022.22 }, { "yearLabel": 2028, "revenue": 5081563.89, "cogs": 1321206.61, "grossProfit": 3760357.28, "grossMarginPct": 74, "sAndM": 1210000, "rnd": 1930994.28, "ga": 813050.22, "totalOpex": 3954044.5, "ebitda": -193687.22, "depreciation": 69156.9, "ebit": -262844.12, "tax": 0, "netIncome": -262844.12 }, { "yearLabel": 2029, "revenue": 9142587.51, "cogs": 2377072.75, "grossProfit": 6765514.76, "grossMarginPct": 74, "sAndM": 1881000, "rnd": 3474183.25, "ga": 1462814, "totalOpex": 6817997.26, "ebitda": -52482.5, "depreciation": 142297.6, "ebit": -194780.1, "tax": 0, "netIncome": -194780.1 }, { "yearLabel": 2030, "revenue": 15756624.83, "cogs": 4096722.46, "grossProfit": 11659902.37, "grossMarginPct": 74, "sAndM": 2915000, "rnd": 5987517.44, "ga": 2521059.97, "totalOpex": 11423577.41, "ebitda": 236324.97, "depreciation": 268350.59, "ebit": -32025.62, "tax": 0, "netIncome": -32025.62 } ], "balance": [ { "yearLabel": 2026, "cash": 2389963.61, "accountsReceivable": 141344.02, "ppeNet": 31748.04, "totalAssets": 2563055.67, "accountsPayable": 222066.84, "deferredRevenue": 540752.39, "totalLiabilities": 762819.23, "paidInCapital": 3800000, "retainedEarnings": -1999763.56, "totalEquity": 1800236.44, "balanceCheck": 0 }, { "yearLabel": 2027, "cash": 16377711.06, "accountsReceivable": 366268.32, "ppeNet": 106080.53, "totalAssets": 16850059.9, "accountsPayable": 285920.41, "deferredRevenue": 1290925.27, "totalLiabilities": 1576845.68, "paidInCapital": 17800000, "retainedEarnings": -2526785.78, "totalEquity": 15273214.22, "balanceCheck": 0 }, { "yearLabel": 2028, "cash": 17134975.17, "accountsReceivable": 723948.83, "ppeNet": 240186.19, "totalAssets": 18099110.19, "accountsPayable": 491393.25, "deferredRevenue": 2597346.83, "totalLiabilities": 3088740.09, "paidInCapital": 17800000, "retainedEarnings": -2789629.9, "totalEquity": 15010370.1, "balanceCheck": 0 }, { "yearLabel": 2029, "cash": 48742988.69, "accountsReceivable": 1302505.62, "ppeNet": 463592.09, "totalAssets": 50509086.4, "accountsPayable": 856527.07, "deferredRevenue": 4836969.33, "totalLiabilities": 5693496.4, "paidInCapital": 47800000, "retainedEarnings": -2984410, "totalEquity": 44815590, "balanceCheck": 0 }, { "yearLabel": 2030, "cash": 51780372.79, "accountsReceivable": 2244779.43, "ppeNet": 825506.49, "totalAssets": 54850658.71, "accountsPayable": 1445726.56, "deferredRevenue": 8621367.77, "totalLiabilities": 10067094.33, "paidInCapital": 47800000, "retainedEarnings": -3016435.62, "totalEquity": 44783564.38, "balanceCheck": 0 } ], "cashFlow": [ { "yearLabel": 2026, "netIncome": -1399763.56, "depreciation": 7937.01, "changeInAR": -141344.02, "changeInAP": 222066.84, "changeInDeferred": 540752.39, "cashFromOps": -770351.34, "capex": -39685.05, "cashFromInvesting": -39685.05, "equityRaised": 0, "cashFromFinancing": 0, "netChangeInCash": -810036.39, "beginningCash": 3200000, "endingCash": 2389963.61 }, { "yearLabel": 2027, "netIncome": -527022.22, "depreciation": 28504.38, "changeInAR": -224924.3, "changeInAP": 63853.57, "changeInDeferred": 750172.89, "cashFromOps": 90584.32, "capex": -102836.87, "cashFromInvesting": -102836.87, "equityRaised": 14000000, "cashFromFinancing": 14000000, "netChangeInCash": 13987747.45, "beginningCash": 2389963.61, "endingCash": 16377711.06 }, { "yearLabel": 2028, "netIncome": -262844.12, "depreciation": 69156.9, "changeInAR": -357680.51, "changeInAP": 205472.85, "changeInDeferred": 1306421.56, "cashFromOps": 960526.67, "capex": -203262.56, "cashFromInvesting": -203262.56, "equityRaised": 0, "cashFromFinancing": 0, "netChangeInCash": 757264.11, "beginningCash": 16377711.06, "endingCash": 17134975.17 }, { "yearLabel": 2029, "netIncome": -194780.1, "depreciation": 142297.6, "changeInAR": -578556.79, "changeInAP": 365133.81, "changeInDeferred": 2239622.5, "cashFromOps": 1973717.02, "capex": -365703.5, "cashFromInvesting": -365703.5, "equityRaised": 30000000, "cashFromFinancing": 30000000, "netChangeInCash": 31608013.52, "beginningCash": 17134975.17, "endingCash": 48742988.69 }, { "yearLabel": 2030, "netIncome": -32025.62, "depreciation": 268350.59, "changeInAR": -942273.81, "changeInAP": 589199.49, "changeInDeferred": 3784398.44, "cashFromOps": 3667649.09, "capex": -630264.99, "cashFromInvesting": -630264.99, "equityRaised": 0, "cashFromFinancing": 0, "netChangeInCash": 3037384.1, "beginningCash": 48742988.69, "endingCash": 51780372.79 } ], "metrics": [ { "yearLabel": 2026, "endingARR": 1802507.96, "arrGrowthPct": 347.05, "nrrPct": 118.48, "grrPct": 88.64, "cac": 11000, "cacPaybackMonths": 6.19, "ltvToCac": 16.15, "burnMultiple": 0.58, "netBurnAnnual": 810036.39, "ruleOf40": 265.4, "magicNumber": 2.77, "fcf": -810036.39, "fcfMarginPct": -81.65 }, { "yearLabel": 2027, "endingARR": 4303084.25, "arrGrowthPct": 138.73, "nrrPct": 118.48, "grrPct": 88.64, "cac": 11000, "cacPaybackMonths": 5.84, "ltvToCac": 17.11, "burnMultiple": 0, "netBurnAnnual": 12252.55, "ruleOf40": 138.25, "magicNumber": 4.94, "fcf": -12252.55, "fcfMarginPct": -0.48 }, { "yearLabel": 2028, "endingARR": 8657822.78, "arrGrowthPct": 101.2, "nrrPct": 118.48, "grrPct": 88.64, "cac": 11000, "cacPaybackMonths": 5.51, "ltvToCac": 18.14, "burnMultiple": 0, "netBurnAnnual": 0, "ruleOf40": 116.1, "magicNumber": 5.58, "fcf": 757264.11, "fcfMarginPct": 14.9 }, { "yearLabel": 2029, "endingARR": 16123231.1, "arrGrowthPct": 86.23, "nrrPct": 118.48, "grrPct": 88.64, "cac": 11000, "cacPaybackMonths": 5.2, "ltvToCac": 19.23, "burnMultiple": 0, "netBurnAnnual": 0, "ruleOf40": 103.82, "magicNumber": 6.17, "fcf": 1608013.52, "fcfMarginPct": 17.59 }, { "yearLabel": 2030, "endingARR": 28737892.56, "arrGrowthPct": 78.24, "nrrPct": 118.48, "grrPct": 88.64, "cac": 11000, "cacPaybackMonths": 4.91, "ltvToCac": 20.38, "burnMultiple": 0, "netBurnAnnual": 0, "ruleOf40": 97.52, "magicNumber": 6.71, "fcf": 3037384.1, "fcfMarginPct": 19.28 } ], "valuation": { "wacc": 0.35, "terminalGrowth": 0.03, "pvOfFcf": [ -600026.96, -6722.94, 307784.02, 484121.78, 677377.67 ], "terminalValue": 9776580.07, "pvTerminalValue": 2180309.36, "enterpriseValueDCF": 3042842.93, "exitARR": 28737892.56, "revenueMultipleLow": 4, "revenueMultipleHigh": 10, "evByMultipleLow": 114951570.24, "evByMultipleHigh": 287378925.6, "note": "DCF at a 35% early-stage WACC and 3% terminal growth is shown to demonstrate the METHOD, not to assert a value. Early-stage DCF outputs are dominated by the terminal value and are extremely sensitive to inputs — investors anchor pre-Series-B rounds on comparable multiples and round norms, not a founder's DCF. Both are illustrative." }, "ties": true, "runwayMonthsFromExit": null } }