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Guide · ~6 min read

Burn multiple & Rule of 40

Two numbers an investor can compute in ten seconds and use to decide whether your growth is efficient. Both are blunt on purpose. Both are widely misread by founders who apply late-stage benchmarks to an early-stage company.

Burn multiple: dollars burned per dollar of new ARR

The burn multiple asks the single most honest question in growth-stage diligence: how much cash did you set on fire to add one dollar of recurring revenue?

Burn multiple = net cash burned ÷ net-new ARR  (same period)

"Net cash burned" is your free cash flow when it's negative (cash from operations plus investing — before fundraising). "Net-new ARR" is the increase in ARR over the year. Lower is better, because it means each new dollar of revenue cost you less cash to win.

Worked — year 1 of the sample

Free cash flow −$810,036 (a burn), net-new ARR = $1,802,508 − $403,200 = $1,399,308. Burn multiple = 810,036 ÷ 1,399,308 = 0.58× — under one dollar burned per dollar of new ARR, which is efficient.

Burn multipleRough read
Under 1×Excellent — each dollar of ARR cost less than a dollar of cash
1× – 1.5×Efficient
1.5× – 2×Acceptable, watch it
Over 2×Expensive growth — investors will probe hard

Why investors love it: unlike CAC or LTV, the burn multiple is almost impossible to game. It uses real cash out the door and real ARR added — two numbers that are hard to dress up. If your model turns cash-flow positive, the burn multiple drops to 0 (you're adding ARR without burning), as the sample does from year two on.

The caveat: a very low burn multiple can also mean you're under-investing in growth. Read it against your growth rate — burning little while barely growing isn't a win.

Rule of 40: growth plus profitability

The Rule of 40 is a rule of thumb from public software investing: a healthy company's year-over-year growth rate plus its free-cash-flow margin should sum to at least 40. It says you can trade growth for profit or vice versa, but the sum should clear the bar.

Rule of 40 = ARR growth % + free-cash-flow margin %
Sample companyARR growthFCF marginRule of 40
Year 2138.7%−0.5%138
Year 3101.2%14.9%116
Year 486.2%17.6%104
Year 578.2%19.3%98

Every year clears 40 by a wide margin — because the growth rate is enormous. That's the honest problem with the Rule of 40 for early companies: it's a late-stage screen. A company growing 100%+ will always look like a Rule-of-40 champion no matter how much cash it burns, because the growth term swamps everything. As growth normalizes toward 30–50%, the profitability term starts to bite and the number becomes meaningful.

How to use these without overreaching

Lead with the burn multiple early — it's the number that separates efficient growth from cash-fueled growth, and it's honest at any stage. Bring in the Rule of 40 as you approach Series B and growth cools, where it actually discriminates. Quoting a Rule-of-40 score of 138 at pre-seed doesn't impress a good investor; it signals you're reaching for a metric that doesn't apply yet.

Both, computed from real cash flow.

ModelKit derives the burn multiple and Rule of 40 from the same integrated cash-flow statement and ARR bridge as the rest of the model — so the efficiency numbers are grounded in cash that actually moves, not a separate estimate.

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Educational material only — not investment, legal, financial, accounting, or tax advice, and not a valuation opinion. Figures are illustrative outputs of a deterministic model; benchmark ranges are common rules of thumb, not targets.

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